tbone3443 wrote:I thought long and hard about this before making this decision, and I came up with a strategy that effectively tries to take away money from investors who think they can predict the market, using certain option strategies, which I have not seen anyone else doing (at least publicly). There is some principal risk of course, but it is tiny, and much less risk than if one were even just to invest in the broad indexes. I have found it impossible to stay away completely from the markets, as that is where most of intellectual curiosity lies.
This is classic self-delusion of gambling addiction. Unless you are Fischer Black or Myron Scholes who were awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics for their revolutionary option pricing models, the probability of your statement being correct is zero.
tbone3443 wrote:Sure, I am saying “it is different this time” and anyone reading my posts would think I am crazy and that I should stay away from Wall Street completely. But this time it feels different, completely different. I am still sure I CANNOT beat the markets by predicting the direction of securities, but I think I can use time and patience to take money away from those who think they can.
Again, this self-delusional statement has been shared by almost every gambling addict.
To avoid another painful relapse, please refrain from ALL gambling activities.
Good luck, friend.